John Osmond reflects on the future political economy of Wales’s water resources

It is a striking testimony on how far the Welsh political establishment has been transformed in recent years that a piece of graffiti designed to ignite political protest against a British government trampling over Welsh interests has been awarded a £30,000 Welsh Assembly Government grant. I refer of course to the ‘writing on the wall’ on the A487 roadside a few miles south of Aberystwyth near Llanrhystud.

Cofiwch Dryweryn is one of the most powerful images in modern Wales, recalling a turning point in modern relations between Wales and England. The row was about water resources, who would benefit and at what cost. In the 1960s England won and Wales paid the price. Yet this sparked a protest that made a major contribution to the growth of Welsh nationalism and ultimately a shift in political power from London to Cardiff. In future any disputes over water resources, and they seem inevitable, will result in a more equitable outcome.

Most people will have seen the words, initially painted in white as Cofiwch Tryweryn in 1963 or thereabouts on a broken down farmhouse stone wall. It has subsequently been recrafted many times until today’s image has the words Cofiwch Dryweryn in red on a white background, complete with the Cymdeithas yr Iaith’s dragon tongue symbol beneath.

Now Llanrhystud Community Council has launched an appeal to raise £80,000 – kickstarted by the £30,000 Assembly Government contribution handed over by Heritage Minister Alun Ffred Jones at the Bala Eisteddford - to buy the wall and the land around it in order to preserve the landmark. It says the graffiti, perhaps the most famous in Wales, is a “last symbol” of the 1960s campaign to prevent the flooding of the valley to supply water to Liverpool.

The original graffiti was the work of veteran nationalist and prolific author Meic Stephens who a few years ago owned up, describing it is as “my most famous statement, my best-known poem, my most eloquent speech, and my most influential political act.” In a leaflet promoting the fund-raising campaign Llanrhystud Council observes, “The flooding of the valley became a turning point in the history of Wales, convincing Welsh people that they must have the right to govern their own affairs.”

Is it not a little ironic, therefore, that now Wales has its Assembly and it is inconceivable that another valley could be flooded against the unified will of an overwhelming of its national representatives – as happened with Tryweryn - such a prospect is being contemplated?

The scenario is painted by Morgan Parry, former Director of WWF Cymru and now Chair of Cynnal Cymru (the Sustainable Development Forum for Wales) in the IWA’s latest publication Wales in 2050: A View from the Future. In it he imagines himself as his nine-year-old son Math when he is 50 in 2050, looking back at what has happened in Wales in the intervening years. He recalls that in 2015 there was a massive against a demand from the City of London for a new dam in the Elan Valley to combat growing water shortages in the south east of England. Later that year a referendum on full law-making powers for the Assembly was successful, mainly because of the English demands for Welsh water

However, a few years later: “Although the Government in Cardiff had the power to say no, they were offered good money by the private water companies that wanted to build the dam and sell water at a profit to Londoners. A deal as agreed, and construction began.”


• John Osmond is Director of the IWA. Wales in 2050: A View from the Future is available from the IWA at £5. Send donations for the Cofiwch Dryweryn appeal to: Cronfa Dryweryn, c/o Llanerchaeron, Ciliau Aeron, Aberaeron, Ceredigion, SA48 8DG.
Read more...

Brian Morgan calls for a realistic assessment of the Welsh economy:

Benchmarking the economic performance of the Welsh economy and the related question of the level of prosperity in Wales is very important. As a famous American coach once said ‘If winning isn’t important, why do we bother to keep score?’ Benchmarking, or keeping score, is a way of determining how well our economy is performing compared with other similar countries. It sets our measures of performance in a broader context. It gives us an idea of what is “best practice” and what economic targets we should be aiming at.

Statements like “ the Welsh economy has expanded by x per cent” only give an absolute measure of performance, whereas what we need is a relative measure alongside our main competitors. If our competitors are expanding by 2x per cent (i.e. double the Welsh rate) then the Welsh economy is clearly not performing well enough. It is no good saying that the Welsh rugby team scored 25 points, but omitting to say that England scored 50 points!

However, the key point is that to develop meaningful and realistic measures we have to compare ourselves with similar (i.e. comparable) countries and regions – we have to compare like with like. In the UK context that could mean excluding regions like the South East of England and similar high rolling regions from the comparator group. But if we do this and benchmark ourselves only against the other poorer regions of the UK and Europe then the Welsh economy still compares unfavourably over the past twelve years – because we have simply been slipping down every league table in terms of prosperity.

Even more worrying, if, in line with the First Minister’s comments, an adjustment is made with regions such as the North East and South West for factors such as the cost-of-living and quality life, the Welsh economy continues to perform relatively poorly.

It’s interesting that the First Minister is willing to benchmark the Welsh economy over time. For example, Rhodri Morgan states “Wales was 50 per cent better off than ten years ago”. But what does that statement actually mean? How is it being measured? Presumably it can only be measured by using the regional GVA figures that the First Minister is criticising! But, however prosperity is measured, if the West Midlands are 100 per cent better off than ten years ago, would we happy with Welsh performance?

No! It is simply not good enough to say that GVA comparisons are a meaningless exercise - simply because they paint a picture that we would rather not see. Discussing these issues with another professor in UWIC he pointed that there has been considerable work undertaken on things like Social Welfare Functions to model some of the concepts that Rhodri Morgan wants included....”but I'm pretty sure they also show Wales in a poor light. Perhaps if you have a safe job and live in a cottage on the Gower you are "happier" than better paid, similar people living in Basingstoke – but try arguing that with the population of Ammanford just 10 miles north!

Brian Morgan is Professor and Director of the Creative Leadership and Enterprise Centre (CLEC) at the School of Management at UWIC. Read more...