IWA
Sefyliad Materion Cymreig
Institute of Welsh Affairs
WalesWatch

WalesWatch — the IWA blog

Friday, January 29, 2010

Inspiring Welsh Citizenship

Geraint Talfan Davies explains the thinking behind a new awards scheme just launched by the IWA

Ever since the IWA was established in 1987 we have been fired by the vision of a Wales in which all its citizens play a full and engaged part in creating a progressive society. From the outset, too, we were convinced that encouraging enterprise of all forms was important – not just in private enterprise, but an enterprising spirit in the public, private and voluntary sectors, enterprise that is about energy and creativity, about ideas, innovation and action.

There is plenty of that around in Wales - though not enough - and we cannot sing its praises often enough. We wanted, therefore, to highlight the contribution that Welsh men and women are making to their own society, to raise the profile of innovative and inspirational Welsh citizens.

So yesterday, together our media partner, the Western Mail, we launched the IWA Inspire Wales Awards to recognise and reward excellence, to underline the importance of innovation in the public, private and voluntary sectors, to encourage active involvement in Welsh civil society, to champion equal opportunities and to create role models for others.

In this first year of the scheme we have designated ten categories, though this may change in future years as we see the need to highlight particular fields of activity. The ten categories for 2010 are:

·      Business Leader of the Year – Sponsored by Leadership & Management Wales. It is crucially important that, in a part of the country that is so dominated by the public sector, that we do everything we can to stress the importance of developing our indigenous business sector.

·      Educator of the Year – surely nothing is more important for securing our future than the quality of education.

·      Science and Technology – Wales has made a bigger contribution to developments in science and technology than is generally recognised. But we need to celebrate what is being done in the here and now. Again, this is crucial to our future.

·      Environmentalist of the Year  – sponsored by South Wales Shredding Ltd and WRAP Cymru. As we tackle climate change we know that there are many committed and creative people in this field trying, in big ways and small, to enhance Wales’s contribution to solving global problems.

·      Welsh at Work – sponsored by The CADCentre (UK) Ltd. The Welsh language is an essential part of our identity as a nation, and we want to recognise innovative ways in which the language has been used in the workplace and business.

·      Arts, Media and Creative Industries – sponsored by Active Music Services. Like the language, the arts, media and creative industries say so much about who we are. They help define us, but they also make an enormous contribution to society, economically and socially. In a recession they can also be a powerful means of social cohesion.

·      Active Citizen of the Year – There is a lot of talk about public disengagement from politics, but there is also plenty of evidence that people, young and old, when they feel passionately about some cause are more than able to galvanise others into action – people who are not willing just to stand by and complain, but to take action. In many ways they enhance the quality of our democracy.

·      Global Wales – Wales is a small country, but in the era of globalisation we have to project ourselves to a wider world. It’s a big task, but there are people who have carried the banner for Wales very effectively beyond our borders.

·      Young Achiever of the Year – sponsored by Wales and West Utilities. At this very difficult time, it is very important that we emphasise the contribution that young people can make when they are given encouragement and space.

·      Sporting leadership – I should emphasise that this is not another award for sportsmen and women, but a category designed to recognise those who people inspire others to participate and achieve at local, regional or national level.

Now we are looking forward to seeing some inspiring entries in all categories. The closing dates for nominations  will be on the 16th, 23rd and 30th of April, depending on category. So the search is on, and on Tuesday 15th June, at the City Hall, Cardiff, we will be celebrating the achievements of the 30 finalists and announcing our category winners at an awards dinner. 

We have already won the support of a wide range of sponsors, but there are still some sponsorship opportunities remaining. For information about entering yourself, about nominating others or about sponsorship, please contact the event organiser Emma Brennan at emmabrennan@iwa.org.uk or 029 2066 0820.

·      Geraint Talfan Davies is Chair of the IWA.

Read more...

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Case of the Missing Scottish Independence Bill

Gerry Hassan queries why the SNP Government have stepped back from their referendum commitment

The SNP are driven by one over-riding factor, the restoration of Scottish statehood and independence. More than left versus right, this is what matters in the party. It is woven into its DNA, and provides the soul of the nationalist movement. The SNP government has undertaken a ‘national conversation’ and published a White Paper on independence, ‘Your Scotland, Your Choice’. All of this was meant to lead to the publication of the referendum bill last Monday – on Burn’s Night – and then if parliamentary votes allowed it to a public vote. Something strange has happened to this smooth process. The bill was not published on Monday, and has now become subject to indefinite delay.

The SNP wanted a public vote on November 30th – St Andrew’s Day – to be specified in the bill. Then Alex Salmond said he was ‘not absolutely fixed’ on that date. The thinking here was that being unspecific about the date, would make the bill more about the principle of a vote. And so the logic goes this would make it more difficult (or costly) for Labour and Lib Dems to vote the bill down. Both parties are not against the principle of a referendum, just against one now.

There is an element of Russian roulette here as no one expects Salmond to be able to muster the parliamentary votes for his independence bill. Instead, what the SNP manoeuvres are driven by is leaving the unionist parties, Labour, Lib Dems and Tories, with the poisoned chalice of having voted down a bill promising a popular vote.

This would leave Alex Salmond as the unchallenged defender of the people, and the unionist parties as looking anti-democratic. Thus the Nationalist logic goes this would play into the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections and the SNP maximalising their vote posing as the true democrats and the unionists as not trusting the people. From this position they surmise, with the prospect of a David Cameron government, elected with few Scots Tory MPs, open to the charge of ‘no mandate’ and presiding over savage, deep public spending cuts, next stop independence!

That’s the Nationalist thinking. Whether it could work, or David Cameron provides such a willing accomplice, remains to be seen. What is beyond doubt is that Scots single-mindedly refuse to see independence as the crucial issue facing them compared to jobs and the economy. Yet the same was true of devolution before. The difference is devolution enjoyed consistent majority support; independence never has (so far).

Then there is the perception that the Lib Dems are slowly inching towards embracing a referendum as their policy in the 2011 elections, opening the door to the possibility of an SNP-Lib Dem coalition government. The choreography towards this would be aided by the SNP being unspecific about the date of any vote in a bill.

Rumours abound about the reason for delay. One is that the SNP government could not deal with the budget being passed at the same time as the independence bill. This is spurious as the budget was always timetabled for now, and the independence bill put into the same timescale.

Then there has been spin that the SNP will concentrate on recession and belt-tightening rather than independence. This can be dismissed as spin, given independence is what the Nationalists are about.

One possibility is that the SNP have encountered difficulties in how to frame a question which now looks more like a complex multiple choice rather than a simple Yes/No.

Four possible options: independence, ‘devolution max’ or full fiscal autonomy, ‘devolution lite’ based on the Calman proposals, and the status quo, are identified in the SNP White Paper. Asking a referendum question on the above choices which would be meaningful and decisive politically could be difficult.

Combine this with the SNP’s lack of thinking or interest about the detail of independence, and this amounts to a significant loss of momentum both for the SNP and its raison d’etre.

Even more inexplicable, the non-appearance of the SNP’s clarion call has occurred with nothing but a murmur from the party’s political opponents and most of the mainstream media. This requires some explanation in a political culture which is often shaped by a Holyrood goldfish bowl and jockeying for position is everything and rated as more important than dealing with serious policy issues.

This lack of public debate is the second situation which requires investigation and explanation. What after all would Scottish politics be without the ritual dance of unionists versus nationalists, Labour versus SNP? And yet all of this could lead towards an eventual realignment of Scottish politics and an SNP-Lib Dem government.

·      Gerry Hassan, author and commentator, blogs at www.gerryhassan.com

Read more...

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Wales Faces Uncharted Economic Growth Territory

Morgan Parry says Welsh leadership on climate change is needed more than ever in the wake of the Copenhagen summit

Last November, a couple of weeks before the United Nations summit in Copenhagen, the Welsh Assembly voted to call on our Government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2020, and to encourage other governments to do the same. The media focus in the run-up to Copenhagen was quite rightly on prospects for agreement between the US, China and the developing world, so the significance of the Welsh vote was lost. In agreeing to the target, Wales became one of only a small number of nations to recognise the urgency of the climate change challenge, and take appropriate first steps. Perhaps most significantly, the target has support from all parties, giving space to our Government to act. President Obama would be a happier man if he was in such a position.

At the start of January’s Climate Change Commission meeting, Minister Jane Davidson applauded the Assembly’s vote as she set out her reflections on the UN Summit. She had played an active part in Copenhagen, attended many meetings with official delegations and NGO groups, and chaired sessions of the Network of Regional Governments. In her view, a lack of agreement in Copenhagen is no reason to defer action, and leadership is needed now more than ever. There is a clear role for small nation governments like Wales to push ahead.  The Commission supported her view.

The Welsh Government’s Climate Change Strategy will be published in the spring, and it should be given the highest profile and status by all Ministers and Departments. If it reflects the responses to last years consultation, it will urge a re-think about the core assumptions behind current policies and priorities, and not look only for ‘add-on’ actions. It will recognise that climate change is caused by our unsustainable ways of living rather than simply by deficiencies in our technology or energy sources, and will call for a fundamental shift away from business as usual. The Welsh Government is also committed to quantify the contribution each proposed action makes to the 3 per cent per annum reductions that will begin in 2011, commensurate with a 40 per cent reduction by 2020. 

The level of ambition throughout the strategy process has been high, and the articulation of the significance of climate change has set the right context and tone. Recognising the chasm between scientific projections and current political commitment, Minister Jane Davidson commissioned a scenario report by the Tyndall Centre at Manchester University, setting out proposals for how 6 per cent and 9 per ent per annum greenhouse gas reductions might be achieved. As well as being dramatically clear what is required if the scientific predictions are correct, the report goes into much more politically sensitive areas which the Welsh Government Strategy cannot do.

The Climate Change Commission has helped the Government draft its Strategy, and working groups have come up with proposals on transport, energy use, public and private sector contributions and land-use. Newly devolved powers over building regulations will encourage better building design, while other strategies and plans in the areas of transport, energy efficiency and waste will contribute to carbon savings. Land-use and agriculture are largely devolved responsibilities, and some radical options are available if the Government choses to take them.

If there are weakneses in the Government’s approach, they are the consequence of its limited powers, putting a burden of responsibility on everyone else to make change happen. The Strategy will rely heavily on encouraging more sustainable behaviours, supporting business initiatives and providing advice and guidance. It will not announce new legislation or regulation, it will have few powers of compulsion, and will not use taxation or price signals to drive behaviour change.

Because energy policy and taxation is a matter reserved to the UK Government, and the main legislative framework is that introduced at the UK level by the 2008 Climate Change Act, the Welsh Government’s hands are largely tied. It would be much easier for the Government to persuade us to behave differently it it had powers of legal enforcement and taxation. High fossil fuel prices will be essesntial if the Welsh Government’s big ideas, such as Sustainable Travel Towns, Low-Carbon Regions and a major expansion of renewable energy are to be achieved in practice.

The 3 per cent a year target is for all of us in Wales, not just the Government. But the strategy is likely to be clearer about the actions the Government itself will take. There will be bold proposals for the Government’s own estate, for example to make a 10 per cent cut in emissions during 2010. I think we will see more exemplar projects and evidence of commitment from the Government itself. But what the Government can do and what it is able to persuade/oblige/force others to do, reflects the degree to which our society and lifestyles have been privatised, and shows how we’ve allowed governments to give away control over our destiny to those who control the marketplace.

The CBI’s representatives play a constructive part on the Climate Change Commission for Wales, but their actions and opinions are contradictory elsewhere. Though never expressed in meetings, they complain (in a written submission to the Welsh Government) that the Commission is “failing to engage properly with the business community” and that the agenda is “dominated by issues other than those important to businesses”. And yet it is the success business has had in lobbying against taxation and regulation that has left governments powerless. The CBI prefers market-based mechanisms such as the EU carbon trading scheme, but this has failed to deliver any emissions reductions to date. It has of course stimulated the economy by provided lucrative work for hundreds of corporate lawyers and traders!  

I hope the UK Carbon Reduction Commitment (a UK wide emissions cap and trade scheme which starts in April 2010) will fare better. However, in the current economic climate I can’t see a tight cap on emissions being enforced in the face of pressure from business. The Carbon Reduction Commitment will be debated by the National Assembly on 23rd February. 

My view is that despite increasingly bold targets, few governments at any level in any country know how to make cuts in greenhouse gases in a cost-effective, politically acceptable way, while wedded to current economic growth model. In Wales as elsewhere, it’s economic and social transformation that’s needed for our environment policies to be achieved. Will we invest sufficiently in energy efficiency in homes? Can we redefine our social aspirations so that we travel less? Will we redirect our economies away from high-carbon infrastructures? Will we treat not the symptom of our malaise but its cause: our unsustainable levels of consumption? 

There’s a real challenge for Economic Development Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones’ economic renewal programme to align itself with the climate change targets. This is uncharted territory – no other country has ever decoupled its environmental impact from its economic growth.  So the programme needs to have as its primary aim the achievement of a very low-carbon economy, and fit around that aim whatever economic development strategies that can guarantee jobs and prosperity. If we do this the other way round, or if we take a short-term approach, we will fail.  And the prospects for our future economy will be bleak.

·      Morgan Parry is Chair of Cynnal Cymru/Sustain Wales.

Read more...

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Substituting a Fast Track for the Slow Lane

Simon Nurse welcomes a call for a radical overhaul of Wales’s jaded rail links

At the weekend, family in tow, I headed east from Cardiff, destined for the Camden offices of the Open University in London. I was there to attend a training course, whilst my wife and daughter were attracted to the Cetaceous animatronics and centuries old specimens of the Natural History Museum. We left just after 6am, tickets secured for the 6.55 Arriva trains service to London Paddington. With replacement bus services in place from Llandaff and Coryton (due to works at Central Station) the journey was not quite as simple as usual. On arrival at Paddington, I bid them farewell and headed for the tube, only to find there were no east bound tube services. With time at a premium, a taxi trip ensued.

For our return leg, I favoured a long walk, followed by a delayed train to Cardiff (no explanation given for the delay at Bristol Parkway) and a further replacement bus service home. Whilst the experience was far from dreadful, it was inconvenient, costly and any regular car user would be unlikely to be persuaded to leave the motor behind and opt for the lower environmental impact and enhanced sustainability of the rail network (as for me…I’m just a die hard, often at my own cost). As a frequent business traveller, this is an argument that I have regularly at work. The rail users (me) versus the car users (everyone else).

I wouldn’t pretend it’s easy to reduce our reliance on the combustion engine. As a frequent business traveller, it’s a real balancing act choosing between road or rail. On the one hand you have the advantage of a safer form of travel, the ability to work remotely whilst travelling, and the possible – and in some areas the probable – advantage of reduced travel time. Balancing these factors are the issues of increased cost (on last minute purchases) and the potential unreliability of the rail network.

So it was with great pleasure that I read the headline splashed across the front page of yesterday’s Western Mail: ‘£5bn vision to put Wales on track for rail revolution’. The report, issued  by the Assembly’s Enterprise and Learning Committee calls for a radical overhaul of the jaded rail network in Wales. The report calls for a high speed connection from south Wales to London (which will very much please the South Wales Chamber of Commerce) and for north Wales to the High Speed Line 2 link. It also calls for tram systems in the Welsh cities, upgrades on the Severn Tunnel, new trains on the tired Valley lines and a north to south connection, something which would benefit many rural commuters who live in and around the Brecon Beacons National Park, not to mention the probable cash injection from tourists and outdoor types arriving to the same area by rail. There is little doubt in my mind, that better rail services to beautiful mid Wales would be rewarded with big increases in the expenditure of the tourist pound.

Timing, of course, couldn’t be worse. With the spending deficit increasing even as I type, the landscape could barely be less amenable to massive cash injections. Yet to miss this opportunity would be folly. As a society we need to get more people out of their cars by providing viable alternatives. Undeniably, the motor car has its place and its uses. However, as our predominant mode of personal transit they are heavily polluting, rely on dwindling natural resources to run, are expensive to maintain (both the vehicles and the road network itself). On top of all that, cars are statistically a much more dangerous way to travel than any public transport system in the developed world (Australians for instance are much more afraid of spiders than cars, yet cars will kill over 1,000 people this year in Australia and spiders most probably none). Add the residual benefits such as meeting ambitious carbon reduction targets, reducing road spending and improved health benefits (reduction in respiratory complaints from improved air quality) and it is hard to see why we cling on to the automobile quite so tightly.

So I hope that we can dig very deep indeed, overcome the significant short term financial hurdles and the Welsh Government can lead us deep into the middle of this century with real direction and vision. This plan could ‘give Wales an opportunity to show leadership and ambition, and to learn from the past. It could give the opportunity to show how Wales is playing its full role as a global citizen, within the context set by the UN Millennium Development Goals’ (quoted from ‘One Wales: One Planet The Sustainable Development Scheme of the Welsh Assembly Government’).

In 1963 Dr Beeching’s infamous rail network recommendations led to slashed rail services across Wales and the UK, laying the groundwork for today’s reliance on road and ensuring that his name is remembered for all the wrong reasons. In 2010 an imaginative, far thinking and inventive Welsh Government could be remembered for all the right ones.

·      Simon Nurse is Head of Operations with Cardiff’s Capital Coated Steel and editor of the Industrial Ecology and Sustainable Business website www.iesme.org

Read more...

Monday, January 25, 2010

Inspire Wales Awards

Emma Brennan explains why the time is right for public recognition of leading figures across Welsh society

This week the Institute of Welsh Affairs is launching a new national awards scheme to profile top achievers in society and to encourage active citizenship. Supported by the Western Mail, the IWA’s Inspire Wales Awards will recognise achievements in up to 10 categories each year. The first awards will be made next June.

The IWA is committing itself to this scheme to recognise and reward excellence, to underline the importance of innovation in the public, private and voluntary sectors, to encourage active involvement in Welsh civil society, and to champion equal opportunities.

The IWA has always been committed to the development of a progressive society in Wales in which all our citizens play their fullest part. It is important, especially in the current economic climate, that we continue to recognise and reward innovators and inspirational Welsh citizens. The scheme will reward those in sectors including science, education, the arts, the environment and business.

These awards have been eight months in the planning. Over the last four months categories have been created, sponsors have been sought, literature has been designed and invites to the launch at Cardiff’s City Hall this Thursday have been sent out. Momentarily the whirlwind of getting the awards off the ground has calmed, which then leaves a bit of time for reflection.

I have worked on many awards initiatives in Wales over the last decade, including the Welsh Woman of the Year awards, and have been genuinely enthused by each one. I believe it is important to reward people and create role models for others to aspire to. The whole notion of promoting best practice can only benefit Wales as a nation. The IWA’s Inspire Wales Awards will recognise and reward innovators and inspirational Welsh citizens. It will also promote equal opportunities and create role models in the following sectors: science, education, the arts, the environment and business.

When looking to launch a new awards initiative I am often asked amongst other questions: Is it the right time to launch a new awards scheme? and Does Wales really need a new awards scheme? Usually I answer without thinking. Of course, there has never been a better time, or It is important to Wales … positive phrases which I do believe but have never really had to think about and never been able to relate to - until recently, that is.

Four years ago I was managing a team within a large organisation that experienced 40 per cent redundancies. Two years later, to save further costs, the company were forced to cut bonuses and I thought, “Well a bonus is exactly that, a bonus. There is no guarantee. I should not rely on it.” Given the news I was hearing about the job losses throughout Wales, I was thankful to still have a job and reiterated this to my remaining team members.

When redundancies occur, it is inevitable that some of the workload still needs to be picked up by remaining members of staff. But I still know of lots of people during these times who feel very insecure in their roles and we are told that the economy is not going to improve for a few years. So whilst employers are unable to give bonuses to staff who are doing the work of three people, there are a few things they can give. One is a “thank you” another is a “well done”. These awards give people a public platform to acknowledge peoples’ achievements.

Call me old fashioned, very Welsh or ridiculous. Scoff at me if you wish, but a “thank you” or a “well done” costs nothing and goes a very long way.

And whilst we expect staff to step things up a level and work harder than their initial job description meant for them to, we must appreciate they are managing to cram so much more into their usual work hours, at how they are sacrificing their lunch hours and how they are working lots of overtime to get the tasks done.

What I am trying to say is that apart from the time it takes to complete a nomination form, or send an email or pick up the phone, it would not take much effort to reward a person and make them feel valued just by making a nomination. It is then up to the individual if they would like to take the next step and complete the form and it is also up to me to convince that person to enter.

Your staff are your greatest asset, you want to hang onto the good ones and the whole recruiting processes is incredibly expensive, tedious and long. Use the awards to retain and reward your good staff and Should your nominations result in a colleague being short-listed as a finalist, the public acknowledgement will serve them better in the long run that a few quid!

· Emma Brennan is the IWA’s Inspire Wales Awards co-ordinator. For more information email her at emmabrennan@iwa.org.uk or call 02920 660820.

Read more...

Friday, January 22, 2010

Mr ‘Deliverology’ Comes to Wales

John Osmond probes the significance of Tony Blair’s key education enforcer, Sir Michael Barber, advising Ministers in Cardiff Bay

This week’s announcement by Education Minister Leighton Andrews of a review of education spending in Wales’s schools and colleges, with a subtext that he wants to cut out the 22 local authorities and deal directly with schools, looks set to mark a profound shift in the Welsh Government’s policy approach.

Until now the Welsh Government’s mantra has been to eschew the New Labour approach of choice and market competition in the provision of public services. Instead, in the ‘clear red water’ distinctiveness from England, associated with Rhodri Morgan, it has stressed co-operation rather than competition in public service delivery and the role of local government as the best vehicle for achieving social improvement.

Although this sounds fine in theory, and certainly pleases socialist-attuned ears, it doesn’t appear to be working, especially in the field of education. Welsh school attainment levels remain stubbornly short of those in the rest of the UK, while Welsh spending per pupil varies widely across Wales and is everywhere substantially lower than in England.

What Leighton Andrews appears to want to do is bypass the 22 Welsh county councils and directly influence Welsh schools in the way that Tony Blair’s education reforms have done in England over the past decade. This is unlikely to entail reducing the role or even abolishing the 22 local authorities, as the Western Mail suggested in a report yesterday, certainly this side of the 2011 Assembly election. More likely is that the Welsh Government will resort to funding schools directly, as has happened in England, or possibly fund them through three or four new regional agencies or consortia.

How else are we to interpret the visit of Sir Michael Barber, Tony Blair’s Chief Adviser on Public Service Delivery from 2001 to 2005, to Cardiff Bay a week ago?  Sir Michael briefed and advised Leighton Andrews and also Deputy Minister Huw Lewis and their advisers for four hours on his approach to public service delivery.

Sir Michael’s key word is ‘Deliverology’ which means that success is just as much about means as ends, about ‘making it happen’, or in Tony Blair’s phrase, ‘what works’. ‘Deliverology’, says Barber, is the science of getting things done. All this chimes well with the words scrawled on a whiteboard in Leighton Andrews’ office in the Senedd, “Better implementation, fewer initiatives, keep it simple…”

What this means for Sir Michael was laid out in New Labour’s education reforms between 1997 and 2005. He should know because he developed the policies for New Labour ahead of the 1997 election. As he put it in an interview in the United States in January 2006, shortly after he had left No 10 to work in his current role as Global Public Sector Practice partner with the consultants McKinsey, a script that sounds like a crib sheet for what he had to say in Wales a week ago :

 If you cut the New Labour education reforms into three slices you could say the first was about standards and accountability. The second was about collaboration and capacity-building (securing the supply of teachers, improving teachers' pay, creating opportunities for schools to collaborate, investing in professional development, building capacity in the system, etc). And the third is about market-based or quasi-market reform. And I think that's a reasonable sequence actually. Blair summarizes the approach as ‘Investment for Reform’.

So from 1997 to 1999 we went at the first phase with enormous energy and drove reform with great speed. It was a completely mission-driven agenda. We implemented a national literacy strategy in primary schools, followed quite rapidly by numeracy using the same model: large-scale reform driven from the top down; designing all the materials at the national level and training everybody in a cascade out; using the accountability system to publish results, and school inspection to check that people were adopting better practices.

We also had a very tough agenda for dealing with under-performing schools: closing some, starting some fresh, and turning around others. We began intervening in very troubled local educational authorities—Liverpool, parts of London, about 12 or 13 interventions altogether. It was very difficult to do but important.

The basic premise of our first phase of education reforms was that in order to achieve a certain minimum floor you have to first set those standards top down and drive them centrally. I think that was right and the results were impressive, but you can't keep doing that forever. You have to move on.

So between 2001 and 2005 we moved on to the third stage. What Blair increasingly hankered after was a way of improving the education system that didn't need to be constantly driven by government. He wanted to develop self-sustaining, self-improving systems, and that led him to look into how to change not just the standards and the quality of teaching, but the structures and incentives. Essentially it's about creating different forms of a quasi-market in public services, exploiting the power of choice, competition, transparency and incentives, and that's really where the education debate is going now.

I think that the concept that you devolve money to schools, you encourage choice, you make it easier for new providers to come in and you make it easier for networks of schools to develop brands—all of that is conceptually sound.

At the political level Blair really understands the challenge. Top-down reform, as I know from personal experience, is not an easy thing to do. But quasi-market reform is more sophisticated strategically. The individuals leading and implementing such changes will need to rise to this challenge and ensure that the reforms enhance equity. Since the status quo is inequitable there is every reason to believe that extending choice to everyone should produce greater equity.”

Asked about the biggest challenges to this reform agenda he divided them into two, one involving implementation and the other engaging with political opposition:

“The implementation challenges have to do with scale and speed. A lot of government programmes start off with a good idea, but as they go through the bureaucracy and out into the system, compromises are made, and by the time it gets to the actual frontline, it is so watered down that it doesn't work. Then the frontline tells you the idea was bad when, actually, there was nothing wrong with the idea, just the implementation. You need to be very conscious of what you're doing and how you're doing it, and you need to design mechanisms to make sure that the programme is faithfully implemented.

And then you have to be very clear what's non-negotiable, and be absolutely unapologetic. If you decide to publish school league tables, as we have done, then you shouldn't apologize for them, you shouldn't say they are a necessary evil, you should say they are a positive good.

A big political challenge is that in the UK, nobody believes it if test scores go up. There's a very, very strong strand — particularly on the right wing of politics, but also in the teaching profession itself — of people who believe that in the end the amount of achievement in the population is a zero sum, so if test scores go up that can only mean you've lowered the standard. We have that debate every single year when test scores come out. That is a huge political challenge because what it means is there's an undertow of cynicism. And yet, if you're in a classroom, you can see it happening, you can see that the child has learned more and the test is just reflecting what a child can do.

The second big political challenge is: How do you do rapid, large scale reform with sharp accountability? A lot of people within the system say we went too far too fast and should have made more effort to get buy-in.  I personally don't believe that. We had to demonstrate that you could do large-scale, system-wide reform quickly. But that doesn't make it any less of a political challenge.

Probably the most difficult political challenge, though, is just how hard it is to stay the course when the going gets tough. Most big reforms take eight or 10 years. You can make an impact in three to four, as we did, but to really transform a system it's going to be eight or 10 years.  How you stay the course — not just through changes of party but also with ministerial turnover in one party — is a real issue.”

This last may be the most difficult issue for Leighton Andrews, who has less than 18 months to the next Assembly election. He and Carl Seargant are telling the local authorities they have six months to get their act together, to demonstrate that they are collaborating effectively to get more money to the chalk face to push up standards and attainment levels. Otherwise other methods, presumably guided by Sir Michael Barber, will kick in. It’s a tough ask in the time available. Look out for education commitments in Labour’s 2011 Assembly Manifesto that reflect Barber’s account of Tony Blair’s New Labour’s education reforms.

·      John Osmond is Director of the IWA.

Read more...

Thursday, January 21, 2010

NHS Wales Performance on the Line

Marcus Longley argues for a constructive response to a new report criticising Welsh health service productivity

Publication of the Nuffield Trust’s report on the ‘productivity’ of the four UK nations’ health services has ruffled a few feathers. Using published data, it argues that in several key respects the English NHS delivers more for the money spent on it than do the services in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. If true, this might be an important indictment of a key area of devolved policy making. (The report, Funding and Performance of Healthcare Systems in the Four Countries of the UK Before and After Devolution, can be accessed at www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk).

There are important caveats, which Scottish and Welsh Government spokespersons were quick to point out.  First, the data are out-of-date – the latest relate to 2006 – and since then key parameters such as waiting times have improved dramatically. Second, the definition and measurement of ‘productivity’ is notoriously difficult in a service where many of the most important outputs (whether patients recover as well as they should) are often not systematically measured.

Nevertheless, the report does highlight some interesting facts which may undermine one or two cherished myths:

·      Fact 1 – NHS Wales is not obviously under-funded. In 2006 it got around 10 per cent per head more than England as a whole, and about the same as regions such as north east England which have similar levels of ill health. It may be that it costs more to provide healthcare in rural areas, which would penalise Wales – but then Wales get considerably more per head than south west England, for example, with similar issues of sparcity and remoteness

·      Fact 2 – NHS Wales does quite well in comparison with England in terms of numbers of staff. For example, in 2006 Wales had about 50 per cent more management and support staff per head, and about 40 per cent more nurses, midwives and health visitors.

·      Fact 3 – patients and citizens in the four countries all express the same levels of satisfaction about their NHS – generally, very high.

The report also raises some interesting questions about what it calls ‘crude productivity’. For example, why does Wales carry out so few day cases compared with England, Scotland and Northern Ireland? This is generally accepted as a good indicator of the efficiency of hospital services, and Wales has been trying for many years to increase its proportion of day cases compared with hospital admissions. Or, if one looks at treatment rates per head, why is it that north east England (with similar levels of ill health to Wales) provided almost 10 per cent more out-patient consultations than Wales in 2006, and almost 30 per more in-patient and day case procedures?

The report argues that much of this difference can be explained by “the greater pressure put on NHS bodies in England to improve performance in a few key areas such as waiting and efficiency, through use of targets, strong performance management, public reporting of performance by regulators, and financial incentives”. 

This is highly debateable. Nevertheless, the questions which the data raise will not go away, and the people of Wales are not well served by a response that plays the man rather than the ball – criticising the data and the perspective of the study, rather than the facts presented. Wales does not want an NHS that underperforms, and there is some evidence here that, in some respects, it may have that. Thankfully, the NHS in Wales is taking this sort of data seriously, and seeking to improve its performance. 

The case for the prosecution is not proven, but nevertheless there is a case to answer.

·      Marcus Longley is Professor of Applied Health Policy and Director of the Welsh Institute for Health and Social Care, University of Glamorgan.

Read more...

Drama Village Marks Another Devolution Dividend

Geraint Talfan Davies welcomes a landmark BBC’s decision whiuch augurs well for Wales’s creative industries

This week’s announcement confirming that the BBC will build its ‘drama village’ in Cardiff Bay, is surely a landmark decision that deserved rather more publicity than it got. It is a major victory for BBC Wales Controller Menna Richards and her team that was never a foregone conclusion.

An organisation the size of the BBC has a thousand ways of kicking large projects into the long grass. The BBC also has more than its share of bright streetfighters well able to defend the status quo and scupper change or reform. The winning of the drama village project for Wales is not only a vindication of BBC Wales’s drama successes over the last decade, but also an indication that the BBC, at the very top, has got the devolution message. It is another instalment in a significant devolution dividend, and a challenge to some other public service broadcasters, notably Channel 4.

It underscores the similar message conveyed by the BBC’s new headquarters building in Glasgow and its commitment to a Media City in Manchester. The Manchester Media City concept has been the template that the Welsh Government has seized on to expand the scope of the BBC project and to justify its own investment, although Cardiff may find it tougher than Manchester to realise such potential. We won’t know unless we try. 

The drama village will bring together on one site production facilities for Dr. Who and its multifarious offshoots, as well as for Casualty and Pobl y Cwm.

Bristol will, of course, feel aggrieved that production of Casualty is being moved to Cardiff, but the truth of the matter is that providing a fairer distribution of BBC production around the UK always ran into the problem that there was too much production concentrated in England. The BBC’s network production centres in Bristol, Birmingham and Manchester always constituted one too many. The key production centres will now be London, Manchester, Glasgow and Cardiff – with Northern Ireland and Bristol having a continuing but lesser role. Birmingham may be a bigger loser.

With such substantial physical investment in the four prime locations, the BBC will now have to ensure that they work, and that they sustain volume production. In a sense, therefore, the Cardiff Bay drama village locks in the BBC’s commitment to Wales more firmly than any number of strategy statements. At present BBC Wales network drama production is well ahead of Scotland. In the 1990s, Scotland was well ahead of Wales. The real test of these arrangements is how London will cope when Scotland, Wales and Manchester are all t creatively on-song at the same time.

Settling the major decision about infrastructure also clears the ground to allow the BBC to tackle the next major issue of cultural representation, always an even thornier issue than the decentralisation of production.

Rightly or wrongly – in my view wrongly - the power of UK and international markets tends to work against material that is geographically rooted, and that has been a difficulty for Wales given its place in the pecking order of British culture. But even in England it is an issue as well. For instance, television adaptations of literary classics might lead you to believe that Jane Austen and Charles Dickens are the alpha and omega of English literature, with regular obligatory nods to the ‘bard’.

It is also arguable that BBC television drama has been less northern than ITV – the BBC’s Eastenders versus ITV’s Coronation Street and Emmerdale. There is some evidence that Austen, in particular – with its distinctly southern character - plays less well in Scotland and the north of England.  Moreover, British television - the BBC in particular - has been far less attentive to 20th Century literature. And what of Welsh and Scottish literature on television? There is sill a lot to play for.

One other dimension of the drama village project is worthy of note. It is that the development is to take place in Cardiff Bay, and to be carried out by the development company, Igloo Regeneration, which has a reputation as one of the higher quality developers in the UK, with a good track record on sustainability.

The combination of a major centre for the creative industries, and possible other spaces for life sciences, together with more imaginative housing than in the rest of Cardiff Bay, may provide a more genuine living community than in the rest of the Bay area, where hitherto developers have been allowed to build high with little thought for animating the area at ground level.

·      Geraint Talfan Davies is Chair of the IWA.

Read more...

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Restoring Trust is Good business

Geraint Talfan Davies hears a champion of successful ethical business score a hit in Cardiff

The gap between public opinion and conventional business wisdom continues to yawn. The senior executives of banks, whether in the UK or the US still find it almost impossible to exhibit any contrition. It is as if the words shame, blush and embarrassment have fallen out of their dictionaries. Their renewed bonuses – this year the almost automatic result of market recovery – still keep them marooned luxuriously on a different planet from the rest of us.

Not only is public protest dismissed as naïve, but even those advocates of more radical reform who live within the magic circle – Adair Turner, Chair of the Financial Services Authority for one - are regarded suspiciously. Meanwhile, governments in the UK and US make limp gestures of constraint with little conviction that they will work. Lord Myners, a banker turned Minister, puts himself forward as a latter day Savonarola, preaching fire and brimstone, tolerated by a governmental church that seems to prefer an Anglican compromise. His lucrative past is a hindrance.

The job of finding and restoring the moral compass that in recent decades has been buried in a sand dune of greed is going to be a long job.

Three cheers, therefore, for Dame Marjorie Scardino, Chief Executive of Pearson plc, and one of the longest serving chief executives of FTSE 100 companies, who in an address to Cardiff Business Club on Monday evening, made a thoughtful and reasoned plea for the restoration of older values in business to restore lost trust.

Her address certainly did not have the feel of a public relations exercise, occasioned by the recent crisis. The record and purposes of the Pearson company – educational as well as ownership of the Financial Times – are such that there is no necessity for that. In any case, it was very early in her 12-year tenure at Pearson that Dame Marjorie was castigated for proclaiming the heresies that she re-stated afresh to Cardiff’s business community: that the ‘corporation is a social institution’, that ‘profit can’t define an institution’, but is ‘a by-product’ of the corporation’s task of ‘moving civilisation along’.

Capitalism, she said, is about more than wealth and shareholder value, and she regretted that this had been forgotten by too many in business. Far from this being woolly-minded idealism, she reasserted the view that it was companies that had a long term purpose other than profit, and that could engender trust, that would win out in the long term. John Lewis was another example where this approach strikes a chord with customers.

She also had little time for executives whose remuneration was sometimes 1400 times greater than their average employee, and had an amusing explanation of why public anger at such excesses is greater in Britain than in the US. She cited a survey which showed that 20 per cent of Americans believe that they themselves are in the top 1 per cent of income earners - a measure of the underlying American aspiration for wealth, not to say a rather spectacular example of cognitive dissonance.

She did warn, however, that there had to be a change in behaviour. Change could not rely on regulation, rules and contracts alone. Society, too, had to make clear what it expected. She preferred the UK’s approach to corporate governance to that of the US – relying on a framework of concepts rather than bureaucratic box-ticking – but did not explore in any detail the role of regulation which is, after all, one means of expressing what society expects.

If there is a connection between the substance of leadership and product quality,  perhaps it is not surprising that the Financial Times is the only UK newspaper in which you can read a sustained intellectual debate about more fundamental reform of the banking system. It wouldn’t surprise me if, in impacting on her audience, she didn’t sell a few more copies of the pink’un in the process.

·      Geraint Talfan Davies is Chair of the IWA.

Read more...

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

The kyBosch is put on Welsh industry – again

Rhys David laments the loss of another Welsh manufacturing business and suggests more than the same old solutions will be needed if the Welsh economy is to be set on a path of growth.

“FOR SALE or TO LET. Modern factory, less than 20 years old, excellent communications, attractive location, plus 900 skilled and enthusiastic workers. Owner moving abroad. Vacant possession from mid 2011, all equipment will be taken away prior to departure.”

Years ago we all knew why factories in Wales shut down. They were at the top of blind valleys, they lacked space to expand, they had poor links with the main road system, the workforce lacked modern skills, or were too strike prone, they were stuck making products from another era.

Bosch and the many others attracted in the golden age of inward investment in the 1980s and 1990s, were meant to be different. The German components maker was linked into an industry – motor cars – that could only go on growing as the whole world became wealthier. Its plant was located minutes from the motorway, close to the airport and a short drive from Cardiff, with its many attractions from opera and theatre to open spaces, exciting waterfront and sport, its executives could live in the Vale of Glamorgan. The perfect package for the peripatetic plc, one might have thought.

In another way it is not so different, however. Bosch is only one of a number of companies in modern, sometimes high technology sectors that have quit not just Wales but what is supposed to be its most business friendly location, Cardiff. It joins NEG, which stayed an even shorter length of time in Cardiff Bay, and Panasonic in Pentwyn. 

From further afield, we have suffered losses in the last few years at Anglesey Aluminium, Novelis Europe in Newport and Alcoa in Swansea, three businesses involved in a sector – aluminium - in which there will continue to be strong demand as far ahead as one can see from a range of user industries. When other big names – Hoover and Hotpoint for example – are added from other sectors it is clear Wales’s pool of top international companies has sprung a serious leak, with few signs anyone understands how to stop the flow. 

One important consequence is that the gap in Gross Value Added between Wales and the rest of the UK – the way in which the country’s productive wealth is measured – will certainly not narrow as long as jobs of the quality offered by Bosch are disappearing, and other Welsh economic measures are also going to be hit. Expect another gloomy set of GVA data in December this year. Bosch was also a significant contributor to Welsh exports, with much of its output of alternators – the company made 40m in its first ten years so the total by now may be double that amount – and it almost certainly exerted a positive effect on Welsh productivity levels. In both exports and productivity Wales is a serious laggard when compared with other parts of Britain.

Yet, while it would not be fair, against a background of the remorseless global pressures that bring about decisions like that of Bosch, to blame devolution, or the Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition or the abolition of the Welsh Development Agency for our woes, we ought to be getting more than the usual nostrums the Welsh Government offers on these occasions, before we move on to the economy’s next stomach punch. The Government, we are told, will do all it can to help those being made redundant. We must become a clever country, we must raise our skill levels. The M4 relief road around Newport is a must, the CBI will add, and others will say that while we are at it we must lay on more international services from Cardiff Airport. (The reason Cardiff Airport cannot attract new airlines or overseas routes, incidentally, is that there is not enough demand from the diminishing number of internationally-orientated businesses in Wales).

There are other questions we need to be asking, however, before concluding that if only we try these ideas we will solve structural economic problems that have persisted in Wales for generations. We started the adaptation to comprehensive education in Wales more than 50 years ago, ending a system that focused on the top 15 per cent, and we now have twice as many universities – eight in total – compared with most of the last century. Why are we still lamenting our poor skill levels? Why are our schools still turning out leavers with few or no qualifications, and why are more parents not concerned at their children’s failure? 

Most of our universities boast business schools and we know they have gone out – as for example in the case of Swansea - to seek international research partnerships, but how much support and assistance do they offer to Welsh business? Were any of them working on research projects with Bosch, for example? What services are being provided to small and medium sized businesses? Should there now be a complete rethink of the role our universities play within the Welsh economy so that they become a more integral part of it rather than free-standing independently-operating enterprises in their own right?

Similarly, though there is still room for improvement, the Welsh road system has seen significant investment, with good connections to markets over the border along the M4 and A55, and fast roads north south in the south Wales Valleys and along the heads of the Valleys. If businesses in Ireland can grow exports – even though in many cases they have to drive the length of north or south Wales to get to their markets, what is holding back our companies? Why do we always think that the last (i.e. next) bit of infrastructure will make all the difference?

One might also add, where have all the industrialists who might be raising arguments of this sort gone? Those with long memories will recall the days when figures like Sir Alfred Nicholas, Sir Melvyn Rosser, Sir Julian Hodge, Henry Kroch, Sir Zack Brierley, Fred Cartwright and others beat the drum for Welsh industry and insisted to Government in London that Wales receive its fair share of UK industrial investment. Times have changed irreversibly and Governments are much less involved in industry decisions but is our civil service in Wales structured adequately to cope with shaping the future economic landscape of the country? 

Considerable emphasis in the first ten years of devolution has been placed on making Wales a sustainable economy, a priority we perhaps now need to look at more closely. By contrast, we have staked only a modest claim to be among the nations participating actively in the manufacture of the many products that will be required around the world if the climate change objectives set out most recently at Copenhagen are to be reached. One can only guess that at least some of the individuals mentioned above would have been demanding we made at least some of the wind turbines we now house around the coast and on our hills.

We need a wide-ranging debate on these issues, particularly as the current round of European support funding will come to an end within the lifetime of the next Welsh Government. Should we perhaps be thinking of seeking to move towards a different approach to rebuilding the Welsh economy, which relies less on individual business effort and more on a direct approach (properly resourced with experienced people and funds) to creating a bigger small and particularly medium-sized business sector that can survive in a globalised world? Should Wales now start to be considered as having some characteristics of a developing economy, certainly in terms of its relatively small private sector and its dependence on the public sector, and how might that affect policy-making in future?

Bosch sadly seems unlikely to be the last big closure in Wales and as in the past we may now need short term moves to buy back some industrial activity to fill the gap it and other closures has left, and while the underlying problems are tackled. Hopefully, someone in the Welsh Government will have noticed that Jeffrey Immelt, one of the most powerful men in the world, who runs a company with very extensive interests in Wales has been in Europe in the past month on a mission to find a location for General Electric of the US’s next wind turbine factory. The company, on some measures the biggest in the world, already owns GE engine maintenance in Caerphilly, and the former Nycomed Amersham plant in Cardiff so should be well-disposed to Wales. 

Are there any Welsh cheerleaders – possibly even some of our MPs - who will tell the UK government that it ought to move heaven and earth to secure this investment and that it must come to Wales?

  • Rhys David is a trustee of the Institute of Welsh Affairs
Read more...

Monday, January 18, 2010

Praising Famous Men in Bronze

Geraint Talfan Davies responds to a suggestion that the statue of a little known Cardiff Victorian should be replaced by one of St. David

In a creative and provocative article David Melding AM 'Why is Cardiff so unloved by us Welsh?' makes a plea for enhancing Cardiff’s capital status by increasing the statuary around the city, and even shifting some of the statues we already have. Among his many suggestions are that the statue of John Batchelor in The Hayes, near the new St. Davids 2 shopping Centre, should be replaced by one of St. David.

Quite apart from what St. David, an ascetic if ever there was one, would think about being linked to a cathedral of consumerism is one thing, but David Melding dismisses poor John Batchelor. “Can anyone tell me,” he asks, “why the Hayes is presided over by John Batchelor? Have you ever heard of him? What did he do of national significance?”

I am not carrying a torch for the late Mr Batchelor, but he certainly enlivened life in this exploding Victorian city, and occasioned a row that had a permanent effect on our laws of libel, and in this case, thank God, not a pernicious one.

Batchelor was a leading Radical in the city in mid-Victorian era, at a time when Radicals dominated Cardiff Town Council. He was also the first Chairman of the Cardiff School Board. He had moved to Cardiff from Newport in 1843 and, with his brother, set up as a timber merchant and ship-builder at the lower end of St. Mary Street, when the Taff was on its older, more easterly alignment. Sadly, he went bankrupt in 1872, owing £50,000 and paying out only 11 pence in the pound.

When he died in 1883 fellow Radicals sought to erect a memorial, and were roundly criticised for doing so. Four years later opponents and creditors raised a 1200-signature petition to get the statue removed, largely on the grounds that it was associated with only one political party. William Thorne, of Messrs Gibson Bros of Bute Docks – presumably a creditor – was put in jug for defacing the statue with yellow paint and tar.

On 24 July 1887, the Conservative Western Mail, then only 14 years old, and under the robust editorship of Henry Lascelles Carr – a man who, among many eccentricities, made his own shoes - published a mock epitaph written by a solicitor named Ensor, under the rather transparent pseudonym ‘Censor’. Censor, exhibiting some sense of grievance, suggested the following as an epitaph to be placed on the statue:

“In honour of John Batchelor, a native of Newport, who in early life left his country for his country's good; who on his return devoted his life and energies to setting class against class; a traitor to the Crown, a reviler of the aristocracy, a hater of the clergy, a panderer to the multitude; who, as first Chairman of the Cardiff School Board, squandered funds to which he did not contribute; who is sincerely mourned by unpaid creditors to the amount of £50,000; who, at the close of a wasted and misspent life, died a pauper — this monument, to the eternal disgrace of Cardiff, is erected by sympathetic Radicals. Owe no man anything."

Not content with a mere letter to the editor, Batchelor’s son called on the editor, assaulted him and indicted him for libel. Mr Justice Stephen directed a petty jury to acquit (R. v. Ensor 1887), establishing that libel is not an offence at law unless injury is inflicted on a person still living.

Not much chance you would get journalism of that vigour these days, not even in the tabloids. However, the other lesson is that setting up statues of near contemporaries will not always escape controversy. The statuary inside our City Hall wisely stuck to the distant past. Perhaps we too should set a high bar.

· Geraint Talfan Davies is Chair of the IWA.

Read more...

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Grow Slow and Strong

Simon Nurse reports on some encouraging signs for the Welsh economy

This week the South Wales Chamber of commerce has produced ‘a National Recovery Plan’ for Wales which it is presenting to the First Minister Carwyn Jones.   Under headings that include the ‘National Recovery for Enterprise and Trade’ and ‘National Recovery for Barriers to Growth’, the plan calls for a number of key actions:
  • Creating a Welsh Centre of Excellence for Entrepreneurship.
  • Continued help for SMEs and initiatives that ‘allow business to be more robust and take risks’.
  • A national infrastructure plan to co-ordinate and deliver transport improvements.
  • Long term manufacturing and export strategies that modernise industry, incorporates energy efficiency and facilitates overseas success.
  • Improvements to the public procurement process.
  • Simplifying and regulating the tax system.
  • Cancelling the forthcoming increase in National Insurance.
  • ·       Developing a skilled Welsh workforce.

All these present a challenge to the Welsh and on the taxation front, the UK Government. Few disagree that Welsh business – and industry in particular – has been exceptionally hard hit during the worst recession in recent history, with an uncertain future ahead. While the Welsh Government can help lay the groundwork on which to build a more amenable business landscape, businesses also have a responsibility to embrace change.

The world has slipped into a quiet but steady revolution. We are witnessing the dawn of the ‘innovation economy’, an environmental revolution motivated by the geographic shifting of markets, a reduction of raw material availability and the need to operate in a more sustainable manner. Ours is a shrinking world of exponential population growth and increasing environmental demands.

For a really good example of how Welsh innovation and – in this case, a touch of ecodesign, a dab of business altruism and a belief in what you do - can project a business well beyond Welsh borders and onto the global radar,  consider howies©, the Cardigan based sports wear company. This is a business that operates in an incredibly cluttered marketplace, with competitors including global entities such as Adidas, Ocean Pacific and Nike.

Favouring a philosophy of ‘Grow slow and grow strong’, the creative and management team behind howies© have continued to expand, innovate and impress, subsequently securing the financial backing of American giant Timberland. Impressed with the business model, they agreed to the huge concession that howies© would continue to be managed and based in Wales. This is the type of organisation that will be well set for 21st Century business, one that embraces change, takes the long view and aligns itself with a changing society.

To facilitate the journey to the new business landscape, Wales already has some of these elements in place. Consider the Eco Design Centre Wales. The Welsh Government supported the set up of the centre which works with imaginative businesses to promote effective industrial ecodesign. This small organisation operated from its Cathays home – adjacent to Cathays train station with onsite cycle parking for those interested in improving the efficacy of the road network – offers an example of the type of organisation that can truly help to embrace change and move organisations into a mid-21st Century mindset whilst the competition continue to languish in the late 20th. Similarly, the Cardiff University innovation network is an excellent example of drawing businesses to the table, offering free lectures and networking opportunities for vibrant organisations and individuals.

As a small country, Wales enjoys some advantages, in particular the close proximity and potential partnership of world class institutions to growing and open minded businesses. While the National Recovery Plan contains some sensible ideas, this will need to be partnered by strong action and behavioural change by businesses to accomplish the Chamber’s lofty ambitions.

·      Simon Nurse is Head of Operations with Cardiff’s Capital Coated Steel and editor of the Industrial Ecology and Sustainable Business website www.iesme.org 

Read more...

Monday, January 11, 2010

ITV’s Welsh news – a race to the finish

Geraint Talfan Davies assesses the runners and riders in the unprecedented sprint to award contracts for ITV’s news for Wales

If anybody is going to be in a hurry at the start of this year, it is the independent panel set up by the UK’s Department of Culture Media and Sport to decide on who will provide news of Wales, Scotland and one English region on ITV – under the creative but inelegantly named concept of an independently financed news consortium (IFNC).

At a Cardiff conference before Christmas, the eager audience – there was a whiff of public money in the air – was rather surprised that the DCMS official present gave a clear impression that the unless contracts had been signed with the chosen consortia before the General Election was called, the process would be put in abeyance.

Since the Conservative spokesman, Jeremy Hunt, is said to be unenthusiastic about IFNCs, many gave credence to a rumour circulating at the same conference that a deal was being concocted whereby ITV would be granted concessions lightening some of its other public service obligations, including regional services in England, in exchange for sticking by the provision of news services and some other programming in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This would avoid having to commit public money to the IFNCs.

With 6th May being most people’s favoured date for the General Election, this might suggest that the IFNC contracts would have to be signed by the end of March in order to squeeze under the wire – rather quicker than the DCMS published timetable which suggests only that preferred bidders would be announced in late March, with final contractual discussions in April-May and a contract award in May.

Were the panel not to reach the finishing line in time there would be a sharp sense of disappointment in the media community in Wales, since IFNCs hold out the prospect of a break out from the status quothat could help strengthen the media infrastructure in Wales. A resumption of the ITV status quo ante doesn’t lift the spirit in the same way, except maybe in the Treasury. There is at least the prospect of some nail-biting, not to mention abortive expenditure by prospective bidders.

However, there are reasons not be too gloomy. Richard Hooper, the panel chairman, and a former chairman of the Radio Authority as well as former Deputy Chairman of Ofcom, is not a man to waste his time on a fruitless journey. It is generally thought that under him the Radio Authority made a rather better fist of dealing with radio licences than Ofcom’s radio licensing committee (on which he did not sit), although his sharp business sense tended to emphasise financial staying power over editorial ambition.

The 6-person panel, announced on Friday (8 January), is a judicious mix of television, radio, newspaper and local online experience, that responds to the multi-media nature of the IFNC concept. It also contains an experienced Welsh representative, Glyn Mathias, who has been political editor for ITN at Westminster and for BBC Wales at Cardiff, as well as Wales’s representative on the Electoral Commission where he was, reputedly, very influential. He has also been a member of Ofcom’s Welsh Advisory Committee, a committee that, during Ofcom’s review of public service broadcasting and its aftermath, has taken quite a robust view of Welsh needs. Scotland is represented on the panel, by Val Atkinson, a former Deputy Head of News and Current Affairs at BBC Scotland.

The line-up in Wales is already becoming clear, following the submission of obligatory pre-qualification questionnaires before Christmas. In fact the DCMS timetable states that the short-listed groups will be announced tomorrow (12th January). Despite the fact that the panel membership was not announced until the end of the last week, this may yet prove possible, since all it will require is the removal of those obviously not meeting the criteria. The panel will then proceed to a process of what is called competitive dialogue – certainly preferable to a straight auction.

Bidders will be judged, not only on overall cost and value for money, but also on management strength and processes, depth and breadth of service offered, relevance to and understanding of regional issues, culture and opportunities and, lastly, strength and credibility for the proposals in terms of journalism, news gathering, creativity and innovation, a multi-platform approach and technical management.

The two most powerful bidders for the Welsh contract are sure to be Llanelli-based Tinopolis, although it is not clear whether it will be partnering with anyone else - although Trinity Mirror is currently without a suitor in Wales. In business terms, Tinopolis is Wales’s most successful independent producer by far, being the only one to have had the financial strength to turn itself into a major UK player. It’s no surprise that, therefore, that it will also bid for the Scottish contract with the owners of three of Scotland’s biggest newspapers – The Scotsman, The Herald and the Aberdeen-based Press and Journal.

The second is Taliesin News, a consortium comprised of

the existing ITV Wales news staff and ITN

Norfthcliffe Media (owners of the South Wales Evening Post, Llanelli Star and Carmarthen Journal)

Newsquest (owners of the South Wales Argus)

Tindle Newspapers (owners of 12 weekly titles across south Wales as well as Radio Ceredigion and the Welsh language newspaper, Y Cymro)

Boomerang – the independent television producer and

Cardiff University’s School of Journalism.

This second consortium will be chaired by Clive Jones, chairman of GMTV. Before his retirement from ITV plc he was in charge of all ITV’s regional news operations. He is also a non-executive member of the S4C management board, and was thought to have been influential in S4C’s unsuccessful bid to become the tendering organisation for the news contract in Wales. It is not yet clear whether he will stand down from his S4C’s responsibilities if his consortium wins.

The real surprise in this consortium is the omission of Media Wales, offshoot of Trinity Mirror, the biggest newspaper owner in Wales. Trinity Mirror is involved in bids in Scotland and in the Tyne Tees-Border area. It is hard to know whether the omission is a political judgement or the result of commercial disagreement, but it may become academic in a year or two if relaxation of ownership rules sees Trinity buying either the Swansea or the Newport paper.

Another interested party is the Belfast-based UTV group, owner of two Swansea radio stations – Swansea Sound and The Wave. It has teamed up with NWN Media – formerly North Wales Newspapers - owner of the Wrexham Leader and a range of titles across north and mid Wales. UTV will also be bidding for the one English regional contract, in the Tyne Tees-Border area. UTV has strong radio interests in the north west of England and in Ireland, north and south of the border. It has also been a strong television performer on its home patch, one of the few regions where ITV outperforms the BBC.

One of the most interesting submissions from Wales, although the least likely to succeed, is from Pembrokeshire TV. On the back of 18 months experience of an online television service for Pembrokeshire, Peter Edwards and Gordon Main, have put forward an idea for a network of 22 local news operations, based on Welsh local authority areas. In all probability this will not get over the first hurdle, but the panel could benefit from thinking deeply about the critique of television news that they have put forward. They want something deeper and meatier, with an emphasis on investigation, and delivered by not-for-profit organisations. Definitely something to ponder.

Geraint Talfan Davies is Chairman of the IWA

Read more...

Friday, January 08, 2010

Apocalypse Snow

The weather continues to wreak a heavy toll. For the third day running, temperatures remain plunged well below zero. The crystal beauty of Tuesday’s coating is Friday’s hangover of disruption and travel woes. For businesses across Wales this carries a heavy burden. Speaking from my own experiences, the difficulty in receiving goods and despatching materials against a backdrop of a reduced workforce causes real problems for industry. One can only imagine the accumulative financial burden across all sectors of Wales; loss of business, costs of gritting, school closures, accidents. The list of troubles is long and troublesome. Little surprise therefore that The Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors called for ‘common sense to prevail’ and to ‘keep Wales running’ despite the temperatures remaining below freezing across most of the country (Western Mail, January 8th). Most of the ire from these organisations is directed at Councils in general and schools in particular. Absent children causes absent parents and it appears – from the outside at least - there is a lack of consistency in the manner in which school closures are handled. Undeniably it is a difficult decision to make; both child and employee safety need to be managed, however the schools play a vital residual role in keeping the wheels of the economy moving – it is parents that provide the motion behind them.

The Snow falls, the ice hardens and stress levels rise. But parking our own difficulties for a moment, please spare a thought for the troubled people of the Huancavelica region in the High Andes, a people hardened to extremes of climate and the hardships they bring. For the fourth year running, the cold has arrived early, decimating livestock populations and bringing an unwelcome flood of respiratory illness. The neighbouring district of Puno recorded 300 infant deaths from the cold in one month alone (Guardian Weekly, 08.01.10). Climate science is a notoriously difficult and – for some at least – controversial business. These exceptional winters, a recent trend in an area that has witnessed significant glacial melt impacting on the local microclimate, may or may not be as a result of global climate changes, but this will come as little consolation to these devastated communities who witness local and global inaction on what could become the defining issue of the century.

The jury is very much out on the finer detail of climate science. Its huge complexity and cross disciplinary nature makes accurate prediction hard to come by. Some models suggest that Wales has much harder winters on the horizon, more akin to the snowy beauty of Northern Canada, than our relatively balmy, Gulf stream heated mild and wet affairs. As I write this blog, I’ve been forwarded a ‘winter maintenance’ e-mail from the council indicating the rationing of gritting services and indicating the routes that are to be prioritised. I for one, will be hoping that these models are wrong and that we continue to bask in a traditional mildly miserable, though infinitely more tolerable, damp and dark winter. It may be prudent however, for policy makers to factor this consideration into long term winter planning. Whilst we can forgive and forget these current micro crises, future disruption and economic pain may prove to be a much more difficult pill to swallow.

Simon Nurse is Head of Operations at Capital Coated Steel and Editor of IESME (Industrial Ecology and sustainable business)
Read more...

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Tracks out of the trough

Rhys David looks at how a selection of Welsh shares performed in December as the UK continues its slow recovery from recession and finds a mixed picture.

The main UK share indices rose last month as they have in 18 of the past 20 previous Decembers, so it is good to report that the Welsh share index launched on this site in November was also up.
Early in December the combined value of the 12 share nominal portfolio drawn from a cross-section of FTSE and FTSE Aim markets had declined, despite an even balance of six of the selections rising and six falling. Anyone who had actually purchased £100 of shares in each of the companies at the start of November would have seen their investment fall in value to £1,171.13, even though the main indices rose by a few percentage points during the course of the month.

By the end of the year there had been a bounce-back. The Welsh share portfolio is now worth £1,223.05, £23 more than the original investment and £51 up on early December, a rise over the month of 4.4 per cent or slightly more than the increases registered over the period by the main indices.

The devil, however, is as always in the detail. Although only four of the shares in the portfolio declined during the month – Enfis, International Greetings, Moneysupermarket.com and Pure Wafer – eight of the selected companies are now worth less than at the start of November when the index was created, a fairly remarkable performance, given the buoyancy in stock markets in the last quarter of 2009. The four exceptions are Cardiff’s own oil exploration company Amerisur Resources, Admiral Insurance, Wynnstay and Welsh Industrial Investment Trust. Having slipped in November Pure Wafer was at least back where it started two months ago at 3.75p.

The star performer over the period was St. Mellons-based Amerisur Resources, which has oil and gas interests in South America, notably Colombia and Paraguay. A beneficiary of high international oil prices, the company has seen its share prices almost double since the beginning of November from 7.72p to 15p. Though it reported wider losses for the six months to September, turnover was well up and the company has just won a new licence to drill from the Colombian Government. Anyone who had invested £1,000 in the company two months ago would now be sitting on shares worth £1,930. As for the other three risers, shares in Welsh Industrial Investment Trust are up 24 per cent over the past two months, Admiral shares are up 11 per cent, and those of agricultural supplies merchant and retailer, Wynnstay have risen by 5 per cent.

The weakest performer by far has been high power lighting specialist Enfis, where a £100 investment at the start of November has been transformed into £37 after a further fall in its share price in December. The company was reporting signs of an upturn in its business a month ago but the market remains unimpressed. International Greetings also disappointed despite Christmas traditionally being one of its strong selling periods. Its share, which rose in November, are now back to where they were at the start of that month at 72p. The company, which produces a range of wrapping, stationery and other products changed its management team a year ago and it has been seeking to reduce previously high stock levels and to exit lower margin businesses. It has managed to cut losses but the market is clearly still waiting for more positive results.

Another company currently restructuring, Finsbury Foods, staged a modest improvement in its performance in December after announcing plans to cut overheads at its Memory Lane cake factory in Llanishen where a total of 1,000 people are employed. The Cardiff-based cake maker, which has contracts with some of the leading supermarkets, has been affected by a downturn in demand for its cakes as a result of the recession and is planning to reduce production and employee numbers in Cardiff.

On balance, therefore, not a stellar performance by the companies forming this bespoke index, though hardly one that is surprising. In the early stages of recovery from this recession big companies are likely to be the earliest to benefit because of the much easier access they enjoy to sources of finance for restocking, re-investment and in the case of the very strongest for acquiring weaker competitors. Sadly, Wales has very few of these large-scale businesses and its companies are almost invariably cast in the role of prey rather than predator.

Smaller companies, and that includes most of those in the index, are likely to have much greater problems raising finance for expansion and recovery and are in a much weaker position in relation to the big companies they often serve. As such, they are less likely to be favoured by investors at this stage and this is reflected in their share prices. As the recovery continues, and providing it now becomes a straight upward line out of recession avoiding the feared double dip, smaller companies should begin to prosper again.

Next month will represent the three month period since the index was started and hence an opportunity to see if any clearer trends are starting to emerge. The full list of companies in the index is: Amerisur Resources, Admiral Insurance, Boomerang Plus, Enfis, Finsbury Food, International Greetings, IQE, Moneysupermarket.com, Pure Wafer, Redrow, Wynnstay, and Welsh Industrial Investment Trust.

A note of clarification. The observations above are personal opinion, they do not represent the views of the IWA and are not a recommendation to deal in any of the shares mentioned. Any reader interested in buying any of these share would be well advised to consult a financial adviser.


Rhys David is a trustee and former development director of the IWA, having spent most of his career working as a journalist with the Financial Times.
Read more...

Too many polls?

Geraint Talfan Davies outlines the IWA submission to the House of Lords Constitution Committee’s investigation of referendums

In an age when millions vote for celebrities or would-be celebrities on reality tv shows, direct democracy has an undoubted appeal. That appeal is redoubled when our current system of representative democracy is under such a cloud – the expenses row challenging its probity, and the banking crisis challenging its wisdom and effectiveness. Has the time for extending the use of referendums come?

The IWA thinks not, and has submitted evidence to the House of Lords Constitution Committee arguing that the threshold for calling referendums is already too low, and that it should be applied only to major issues of democratic principle. Its submission also argues that the referendum is not a quick fix either for the perceived problems of local government.

In essence, we have argued that if our system of representative democracy needs reform – and it certainly does (see the Power 2010 campaign) – the answer does not lie in by-passing it.

While acknowledging that there is now no going back on the next referendum on law-making powers – already enshrined in the Government of Wales Act 2006 and underlined by the One Wales agreement between Labour and Plaid Cymru - the IWA argues that the changes proposed in that Act “are not sufficiently significant to merit a second referendum in little more than a decade.”

“The Assembly already has some powers of primary legislation, and the proposed change would serve only to change the way in which those powers are acquired and operated,” says the submission. In fact constitutional lawyers are beginning to doubt whether the distinction between Part 3 and Part 4 powers – ostensibly the basis for the next referendum – are quite as great as first thought, if the exemptions in favour of Westminster are going to be as numerous as at present. Even the All Wales Convention had to raise the prospect of possibly amending the 2006 Act, after or even before a referendum.

It adds: “Ultimately, what constitutes a major change in these terms will always be a matter for political judgment. However, it is likely that such a change will either involve a basic alteration of the structure of the state’s institutions, such as occurred when Britain entered the Common Market in 1973, or the creation of completely new institutions, as obtained when the devolved institutions were proposed in Wales and Scotland in 1997. When set against these innovations it can be seen that changing the internal arrangements of the European Union or the further development of the devolved institutions are of a lesser order of magnitude. Such evolutionary change of existing structures cannot be said to be a point of principle to the same extent as presented by completely new ventures. Evolutionary change is a constant.

The House of Lords Constitution has decided to inquire into the role of the referendum in the UK’s constitutional experience because it argues that while the referendum has been an’ increasingly familiar feature of the UK’s constitutional landscape…the place of the referendum in the UK’s constitutional experience remains unclear.’

The IWA submission has been put together with the expert assistance of Glyn Mathias, who represented Wales on the UK’s Electoral Commission from 2001 to 2008.

The issue is particularly relevant to Wales, where we have had rather more experience of referendums than other parts of the UK: not only the 1975 referendum on entry to the Common Market, and the devolution referendums of 1979 and 1997, but also the seven-yearly polls on Sunday closing of licensed premises and a referendum in Ceredigion in 2004 on the issue of whether or not to have a directly elected mayor for the county.

We also face the prospect of a further referendum on the powers of the Assembly later this year, with no clear indication that this will provide any finality. In recent weeks, the Home Secretary, Jack Straw, has been arguing that the creation of a Welsh legal jurisdiction, that some regard as the inevitable consequence of law-making powers, should be subject to yet another referendum. This raises the prospect of a succession of referendums on every technical development of the National Assembly as an institution – something guaranteed to produce endless political distraction.

In the words of the submission, ‘it defies belief that such a technical issue could be construed as being of sufficient constitutional importance to merit a referendum.’

We make the case that while the theoretical rationale for referendums is that the change is so profound that it requires the direction sanction of the electorate, in practice it has usually had much more to do with political calculation. Referendums on Europe and devolution have been seen by many as escape hatches from internal party tensions. Even the Ceredigion poll on an elected mayor had much more to do with discontent over the local authority’s housing plan than with the structure of local government.

In relation to the promised referendum on law-making powers, it is going to be immensely difficult – as the All Wales Convention recognised - to formulate a question that accurately conveys the narrow issue of the way in which the Assembly acquires and operates additional powers. The formulation of the question could heavily influence the outcome.

We have suggested to the Lords Committee that the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (PPERA) be amended to include a definition of the kind of constitutional issues that would require a referendum. We propose that any referendums on constitutional change should be restricted to “truly major issues of democratic principle – change that alters fundamentally the nature of the state”.

We also point up the anomaly that the PPERA rules for referendums apply only to referendums authorised in statutes in Westminster. This means that any Scottish referendum on independence and any Welsh referendum on law making powers might escape the PPERA rules. Any Scottish referendum would be based on Scottish legislation, while the rules for a Welsh referendum could be made by a government minister commanding a relevant majority in the Assembly. We suggest that referendums on constitutional matters should be subject to the same rules right across the UK.

Since the promise of further decentralisation of power will be dangled before the electorate by most parties at the next General Election, expect to hear much more about the possibility of local referendums as an extension of democracy.

We cast some doubt on the wisdom of such local polls, except in circumstances where an issue is so divisive that locally elected representatives cannot resolve it. We do not advocate a system whereby citizens can trigger referendums themselves, as this would further undermine the role of democratically elected councils. Instead, we argue that we should seek to improve the effectiveness of representative democracy by restoring powers to councils and considering more seriously proposals for local income tax or the introduction of proportional representation. Referendums should not be and would not be a quick fix.

Geraint Talfan Davies is Chairman of the IWA

Labels: ,

Read more...