Institute of Welsh Affairs Blog

The shareholder and the licence fee payer

2008-06-30T19:08:00.007+01:00

The owner of the Western Mail, Wales’s sole national newspaper, is struggling. Yesterday Trinity Mirror's shares fell to around 105.75p at 4pm, down from the closing price of around 151.50p last Friday. The fall followed yesterday morning’s announcement that Trinity Mirror’s full-year operating profit would be about 10 per cent below expectations.

The reasons for Trinity Mirror’s troubles are numerous. As the IWA’s recent report, Media in Wales – Serving Public Values, showed circulations have fallen dramatically, even since the inception of the National Assembly in 1999. Its circulations continue to slide. Advertising is a regional newspaper’s lifeblood and in the case of Media Wales (Trinity Mirror's company in south Wales) it has been bleeding away thanks in part to the consumer slowdown affecting both classified and display advertising and to wider challenges, including technological developments. Central to its plight, however, is shareholder pressure - the pressure to grow profit every year. In television ITV plc is scaling back its regional output across the UK thanks again to the pressure of the shareholding model. Its shares have also taken a battering in recent years, falling from 115.0p a year ago to around 47.5p last Friday. As the financial screw tightens for ITV the decline of regional programming is accelerated.

The lesson to draw from the (mis)fortunes of Trinity Mirror and ITV plc is that the conventional shareholder model just does not seem appropriate for media organisations that have such an important public service role. Choice is important for the citizen: it can promote healthy competition and media plurality; and, most importantly, gives the citizen democratic power. Whatever system we have in place must allow the citizen democratic power to choose.

Yet, in recent years many in and around the media industry have have tended to focus - perhaps too much - on plurality of media ownership rather than plurality of output. At the moment only the BBC seems immune to shareholder cost pressures. The BBC stands as the exception, with its funding by the licence fee. In Wales the BBC is the only national radio service and, if ITV plc's decline continues, could be the only player in television media as well. This surely cannot be healthy for Welsh democracy.

Aerospace: the final frontier

2008-06-05T11:43:00.003+01:00

The state of one of Wales’s aerospace industry is profiled is a recently published study by the IWA, in partnership with Cardiff and Glamorgan universities. The study is available on this website. Around 150 firms serve aerospace markets, employing more than 20,000 people and generating about £2bn per year. It is a high gross added value industry and high levels of employee compensation.

The survey reviewed Welsh aerospace’s prospects for the future in key areas: manufacturing; maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO); and research, development and training (RDT). Across the three areas the Welsh aerospace industry faces familiar challenges: lower-cost competition abroad and the adaptation towards new technology (composite manufacturing materials). Each sector has its own challenges, also. The research was commissioned by the Assembly Government Economic Research Advisory Panel and follows an earlier project, Auditing Welsh Industry: A Clusters-based Approach (2006).

Rail in Wales

2008-05-29T14:44:00.002+01:00

Network Rail yesterday published an industry document for consultation, the draft Wales Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS). The consultation will close on August 22. The Wales RUS report identifies ways in which the rail network's potential can be maximised. The Assembly Government, Arriva Trains Wales, First Great Western, freight operators and the Association of Train Operating Companies were also involved in the strategy’s formation.

Recently there has been debate about the simplification of rail ticket pricing into three broad categories, one of which (Advance) is available already and two more, Off-peak and Anytime, will appear on September 7. This new structure of ticketing is important as it reflects the ease and cost at which passengers purchase tickets. Around this debate, however, is the bigger issue of the rail network, namely how to maximise its potential for passenger and freight journeys.

The Wales RUS highlights as concerns two sources of pressure in Wales’ rail network: a higher than predicted long-term growth in commuting journeys into Cardiff between 1998 and 2006; and also general growth in all day rail travel. According to Network Rail more than 30 million passengers travelled within Wales during the past year (April 2006 – April 2007). The largest volume of passenger movements was in the south Wales region, where 62 per cent of all journeys within Wales started or ended.

2008 marked the beginning of the Ebbw Vale train service and improvements are expected to the West Coast Main Line that will increase the frequency of journeys to Bangor and Holyhead from England using the current infrastructure. The RUS document highlights a number of potential options and improvements, including:

New stations at Llanwern and Energlyn accompanying residential developments
Work to enhance capacity beyond 2 tracks on the Great Western Main Line west of Cardiff Central station
A renewal of signaling in Newport and Cardiff during the next 5-7 years
Work on Valleys-Cardiff lines: a passing loop at Merthyr Vale to increase frequency of services from Merthyr Tydfil and additional platforms at Cardiff Central, Caerphilly and Pontypridd to aim towards 16 trains per hour in the long term through the Valleys network
A feasibility study to address journey time reductions and frequency improvements from north to south Wales, including signaling enhancements recommended to address a pinch-point near Abergavenny.

The Assembly Government's Minister for Economy and Transport, Ieuan Wyn Jones, will present the Wales RUS in the Senedd on June 4. The widest possible engagement with the public and businesses through representative bodies is essential to ensure Wales can shape a rail network fit for its requirements. Making representations to Assembly Members before June 4 would be a good way to start for interested members of the public.

Transport in west Wales

2008-05-13T14:53:00.004+01:00

IWA members in west Wales highlighted transport as a key issue for the 2008 programme, especially given the publication of the Assembly Government transport strategy for Wales and its contribution to the sustainable future for the region. The IWA’s west Wales branch organised a seminar that took place on May 8 to coincide with the launch of the transport strategy for Wales earlier the same day.

The strategy identified five areas for progress:

1) reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and other environmental issues;

2) improving public transport and better integration between modes;

3) improving links and access between key settlements and sites across Wales and strategically important all Wales links;

4) enhancing international connectivity; and

5) increasing safety and security.

These issues provided the context for the seminar and debate was further stimulated by John Pockett, General Manager of First Great Western and Director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport, and Ryland Jones of Sustrans – the sustainable transport charity.

Transport contributes 14 per cent of Wales’ greenhouse gas emissions and is the only sector that has a continued rising trend of emissions. Road transport contributes 90 per cent emissions from transport, with a 3 per cent annual increase in the number of cars on the road and ever increasing journey lengths by car users. 70 per cent of journeys are fewer than 5 miles in length; and school runs represent 10 per cent of those journeys. Fewer than 1 per cent of journeys to school are undertaken by bicycle. However, there has been a welcome reversal in the downward trend in bus travel – largely owing to Assembly Government policies on concessionary fares – and an increase in rail travel and innovative local community transport initiatives, such as the North Pembrokeshire Transport Forum.

Seminar attendees thought the new transport strategy said the right things but implementation will be based on a ‘business as usual’ model that will not account for the need to reduce reliance on ever more expensive and insecure sources of oil. The delivery of the transport strategy will be taken forward through transport plans put forward by the regional transport consortia – SWWITCH is west Wales' consortium. The Scottish Government has committed to 70 per cent spending on sustainable travel in its transport budget, which represents the sort of investment to which regional transport plans should commit. Past policies have been based on a 'predict and provide' model, which has tended to provide more roads while demand has continually increased.

There are many examples of sustainable transport schemes within the region. Pembrokeshire’s Greenways initiative was highlighted. The initiative improved community transport and multi user routes, providing exemplars of the kind of alternative transport networks that Sustrans champions. Yet, these initiatives struggle to keep pace with the trend for centralisation of key services: post offices, shops, schools, hospitals and abattoirs, for example.

Seminar attendees expressed similar frustration with the Wales freight strategy, where there was a perceived need for greater focus on shifting freight to rail and retaining key elements of the rail infrastructure, such as sidings, that can be developed as centres for handling freight. While increased localisation of supply can reduce levels of freight traffic and there can be improvements in freight systems to increase rail use, the economics of supply networks mean that the focus should be on reducing car use.

The meeting agreed that the IWA should continue the momentum begun by the seminar, encouraging SWWITCH to engage members with the regional transport plan. The focus on improving the rail service was paramount, with the North Pembrokeshire Transport Forum’s campaign to improve the Fishguard–Carmarthen link and the need to improve the speed of the west Wales–Cardiff link. The next meeting of the IWA west Wales branch is scheduled for June 30, 2008 at 5:30pm.

Post by Peter Davies – IWA West Wales branch chair.

Pluralism in Welsh local politics

2008-05-09T14:57:00.005+01:00

Following the local election earlier in May 2008 most of the UK-wide media have shifted their attention to the upcoming Crewe and Nantwich by-election to read New Labour's runes for a future UK general election. The seat is being contested following the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody MP.

The story in England was largely one of Conservative resurgence and the party has also made considerable gains in Wales. There are, however, extra dimensions to the Welsh results. The Assembly election in May 2007 provided the first Wales-wide hints that pluralism had entered Welsh politics. There was much evidence in the Welsh local elections of May 2008 to suggest this state of affairs will continue for some time yet. The IWA's Director, John Osmond, has produced an analysis of the 2008 local elections in Wales, available here as a PDF (92k).

European Dialogue

2008-04-25T16:14:00.001+01:00

In Europe the notion of homogeneous cultures neatly separated and parceled within state boundaries always needed qualification. Today it is being challenged not only by globalisation but also by migration on a scale that many European countries did not expect. This has given a new dimension to the debate on culture and identity within the European Union that is at the heart of the EU’s Year of Inter-Cultural Dialogue, 2008.

The IWA has just published Europe: United or Divided by Culture? by Anthony Everitt, an author and cultural consultant. In the publication he reflects on a series of seminars – arranged by the European Cultural Foundation’s UK Committee (now Forum) and Royal Institute of International Affairs – that explored the place of culture in the development of European identity and citizenship. He considers, also, the economic aspects of culture. In Wales the creative industries are very important.

The need for shared culture should not only be a concern for EU policy-makers. Culture encompasses many of the challenges facing Wales and Europe: the co-operation and potential tension between traditional European culture and absorbed cultures; and the need for cultural specificity, one of the challenges that Wales is considering in the fields of governance (the National Assembly and Assembly Government), media and broadcasting and the Welsh language.

The EU’s cultural policies aim at a moving target: states across Europe are altering, owing to national movements; and the demographic and cultural make-up of the EU is constantly changing. In addition, there is a need for shared approaches to international issues, such as trade, terrorism and climate change. As the author himself concludes: “If the European Union is to win the hearts and minds of the population it serves, it must transform itself from a top-down institution into a popular movement.”

Europe: United or Divided by Culture? is by Anthony Everitt and is published in Wales by the Institute of Welsh Affairs. Price £8/€12.

Wales' media

2008-04-15T14:49:00.005+01:00

The National Assembly has established a Broadcasting Committee to investigate and report on:

"The future of public service broadcasting in Wales in the English and Welsh languages; and the impact of digital switchover and the creation of new delivery platforms, on the production and availability of programming and digital content from Wales and in Wales."

The committee’s establishment (March 2008) anticipated the publication on April 10 of the second Ofcom review of public service broadcasting (PSB), which outlines the challenges facing PSB in the UK. Ofcom’s research shows the public value PSB highly but that the digital switchover and other funding pressures mean the current arrangements for PSB cannot continue for much longer. In fact, Ofcom estimates ITV1 Wales’ costs of holding a PSB licence could outweigh the benefits as early as 2009.

Coverage in UK-wide media of Ofcom’s report focused on the cost implications of sustaining PSB. Ofcom proposed four scenarios for ensuring funding for PSB is sustainable. Wales relies to a great extent on UK-wide media – in print especially – meaning Wales will be involved in this debate about funding. This is entirely appropriate. However, given Wales’ heavy reliance on UK-wide print media and ITV1 Wales’ precarious position there are extra issues – ensuring plurality and sustaining the Welsh language, for example. There are other important questions: will there be sufficiently plural PSB to help Wales’ debate about devolution? How can Wales cultivate PSB that is economically sustainable, plural and accessible? What is the role of the internet and other technologies? This list is not exhaustive but gives an idea of the scale of task.

Both Ofcom’s Phase 1 consultation (on the report published last week) and the Assembly committee’s work conclude early in the summer. The IWA will publish a Wales media audit in May, which is supported by a grant from the Assembly Government. The audit will provide an evidence base that will help people form their own judgements. Now more than ever we must use our democracy and the media resources available to Wales now to freely debate and encourage informed policy-making on this crucial issue.

Taking stock

2008-03-26T14:14:00.003Z

The IWA has just published, A Strategy for the Welsh Economy, by Dr John Ball of Swansea Metropolitan University. One of Dr Ball’s key points highlights a continued weakness in the Welsh economy: the lack of a sound financial sector and the associated difficulties of funding business and raising capital. Establishing a Wales Stock Exchange would substantially expand legal and financial expertise and the development of a financial sector, and lead to an equity market built on understanding the unique needs of Welsh business finance. This would lead to improved business education and the development of a wider business and financially literate community. In addition, it would encourage internal growth and ownership, provide new sources of long term funds for Welsh firms and act as a catalyst for a regional financial cluster. Specific and sectoral exchanges have been on the agenda recently.

Differences in taxation-based incentives, Dr Ball says, have proved to be a powerful tool of economic development in many parts of Europe. Such incentives have been based on corporation tax, however, but profit has to be made before any such incentives become attractive. An alternative response is to introduce a tax based not on profit but on turnover. While the encouragement of profitable businesses is essential to economic well being, the definition of profit is at best ambiguous. Profit levels can be manipulated and transferred between operations and countries, resulting in a situation where there are no profits to be taxed. The great advantage of a turnover tax is its simplicity and transparency. Tax-based incentives, such as capital allowances would still apply but be off-set against the liability arising from the turnover tax. The mechanism for the collection of the tax already exists through the VAT system. The tax would incorporate a sliding scale at the lower end to encourage smaller, and probably local, businesses and as with VAT there would be a threshold below which the turnover tax would not be paid.

Although separate data on the amount of corporation tax paid in Wales is not currently available, extrapolating figures produced during the 1990s shows that a turnover tax would at the very least equate with the total amount of corporation tax paid in Wales. To boost competition, introduce buying power into the economy and simultaneously address the benefits trap, Dr Ball calls for a fundamental change in the personal taxation system, replacing the present taxation system with one based on a single, flat tax. Adopting a single, flat tax, applicable across the board would have the effect of putting money, and demand, into the economy. The resulting economic dynamism would generate additional revenue for local businesses. In addition, low taxed incomes would mean that those on social security would no longer be penalised when moving into work, even if the work was low paid. This measure alone would have the particular attraction of addressing the benefits trap, boosting incentives to seek employment. There would be little or no loss in taxation income to HM Treasury, since many of those who would benefit from this tax system would almost certainly be in receipt of social benefits or below the personal taxation thresholds.

A Strategy for the Welsh Economy by Dr John Ball is available for purchase: £10 to non-members and £7.50 to IWA members (plus £1.50 for P&P). Email wales@iwa.org.uk or telephone 029 2066 6606 for more information or to order.

The future of Welsh services

2008-03-11T17:12:00.011Z

Strong views exist on the interconnected subjects of profit, incentives and salaries. These debates often lead into wider issues of the public and private sectors. Tonight John Hutton, the UK Government Minister for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, will say to the Progress organisation that 'Rather than questioning whether huge salaries are morally justified we should celebrate the fact that people can be enormously successful in this country.'

These debates have a resonance in

Wales

, where there are particularly strong views about the roles of the private and public sectors. The One Wales coalition agreement said 'the people of

Wales

sought a government of progressive consensus' in the May 2007 elections. This year the IWA has been hosting seminars to discuss this consensus, featuring talks from John Kay (economist and FT columnist) and Will Hutton (Observer columnist and Chief Executive of the Work Foundation), with David Marquand (former MP) and Peter Stead (Welsh historian and cultural commentator) to follow.

As discussions have taken place in the IWA seminars it has become apparent that the progressive consensus of One Wales raises many questions. Wariness of the private sector features in the One Wales document, which said: 'We firmly reject the privatisation of NHS services or the organisation of such services on market models. We will guarantee public ownership, public funding and public control of this vital public service.' However, issues about medication, for example, challenge this assumption that the NHS is purely public. Paying for medication, and specifically which drugs are available on the NHS in Wales, has been debated throughout the UK. Pharmaceutical companies make huge profits from drugs delivered by the NHS. In light of this, is the NHS a purely public service?

Wales needs to have more informed debates about the role of the private and public sectors. Do our current public service arrangements allow innovation and provide adequate (and not merely financial) incentives? Will Hutton’s criticism of the progressive consensus was that it assumes the concepts of state and public to be the same. In the broadcasting realm the BBC is, for example, a public rather than state broadcaster. In Wales, and the UK also, Hutton said we need a more sophisticated understanding of what ‘public’ means.

Returning to the medicines issue: advances in medicine have increased expectations and costs in a way that the architects of the NHS could not have conceived 60 years ago. There are strong attachments to certain ideals, meaning concepts such as private medical insurance and charges would not be popular in the current Welsh setting.Yet, there is a responsibility on politicians to make tough decisions in allocating and deciding on sources of funding.

The overall UK budget has been running a large deficit for some time and many of the indicators suggest a slowdown in the economy, which will have a direct effect on public spending. The challenges are great but so, now, is the opportunity to cultivate Wales-specific solutions to Welsh issues through the Assembly. If we are to continue to develop health and other services in Wales we must have these debates about the public, private, profits and their connected issues.